Report: Mets And Lowe In Talks

NEW YORK - OCTOBER 04:  Derek Lowe #23 of the ...
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This story from Yahoo writer Gordon Eades really got a lot of press yesterday. Eades reports that the Mets and Derek Lowe’s agent are in “deep negotiations” for Lowe to come to New York.

It’s the typical story without substance that happens this time of year. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman have mastered the art of reporting rumors. It sounds like Eades is trying to make a splash by using the language “deep negotiations” in the story.

I’m sure that Omar Minaya has kicked the tires on Lowe. But I suspect that Lowe will end up back in Boston. Now that the Yankees have landed Mark Teixeira, Boston will need to start collecting some big-time players. Lowe is the best pitcher left on the market, so Boston should go hard after him.

Mets fans, don’t get your hopes up about Lowe coming to Queens. I suspect he’ll be back in Boston again next season.

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Report: Santana May Be Asked To Leave WBC

Johan Santana on May 17, 2008
Image via Wikipedia

In a report for the NY Times, Ben Shipgel relays some quotes from Mets GM Omar Minaya about Johan Santana’s participation in the World Baseball Classic. Apparently, the issue here is that Santana had a very minor knee surgery after the 2008 season ended to repair torn meniscus in his left knee.

From Minaya:

He should be O.K., but we’re going to be conservative. If we have a little bit of doubt or concern, we’d rather have him not play. We’re pro-Classic, but we always have to be mindful and protective of our players.

We don’t want to have him be in the heat of the battle in early March when he’s coming off a minor surgery. It’s minor, but it’s still surgery. We will have to use precaution.

As I’ve written before, I’m not a huge fan of the WBC. So I’d be happy if the Mets didn’t allow any of their players to participate. The risk of injury to play in this tournament is too great and provides no benefit to the clubs.

Minaya might as well come out and say he’s looking for any excuse possible to keep Santana from playing in the tournament. Santana’s the best pitcher in baseball right now and if he got hurt in a meaningless tournament, it would have a devastating impact on the 2009 season.

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Mets Roster Will Take Shape At Winter Meetings

The Mets 2009 roster is full of holes but should start to take shape this week at the Winter Meetings. The meetings start up on Sunday December 7th in Las Vegas and Omar Minaya will be able to start making some moves, whether trades or free agent signings, during the week.

There have plenty of rumors over the last several weeks about the closer, starting pitchers, and second base. But the activity has been curiously slow so far. Be it the 21st century version of the Great Depression or the astronomical contracts that the top-tier free agents are seeking, the free agent market is still undefined.

Until K-Rod, Derek Lowe, CC Sabathia, and Manny Ramirez sign contracts we won’t see much action happening. They need to set the tone for the market by signing contracts so the lower end free agents gain an understanding of their value. Not to mention the fact that some teams, like the Mets, may need to go the trade route for key roster spots if the K-Rod’s of the world sign elsewhere.

Expect the Mets to settle the closer the position this week. Whether we end up with K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, J.J. Putz, or Huston Street this week is still up for debate but I expect the issue to be resolved this week.

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Closer Market Gets Crowded As Hoffman Joins Free Agents

This week Trevor Hoffman joined the ranks of the currently “between contract” closers. It’s a pretty impressive list right now with K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, and Hoffman all free agents. Bobby Jenks and J.J. Putz are rumored to be available for trades as well.

The Mets couldn’t have picked a better time to be in the market for a closer. We haven’t heard any rumors about the Mets making an offer to anyone yet. So we know they’re not immediately jumping into the fire after any of the available free agents.

Hoffman could be a good one year stop-gap until Eddie Kunz is ready to take over the reigns as the closer. Sure, he’ll be 41 years old this year. And his fastball is topping out in the mid to high 80’s now. But he’s still got the great change up. And he’s not far removed from some excellent seasons.

Last season Hoffman had 32 saves with a 3.77 ERA and 1.037 WHIP. Not bad for an old man. The Mets would’ve killed to have someone like that last season after Billy Wagner went down. In 2006, Hoffman had 46 saves and finished second in the Cy Young Award voting and tenth in the NL MVP voting.

I’d rather have Hoffman for one season than Fuentes for three and K-Rod for four or five. The way relief pitchers are up and down from season to season, you just can’t trust them to be consistent over any great length of time.

Omar Minaya should really think about getting into a short-term deal with Hoffman. Not to mention the fact that his price tag will be significantly lower than the other free agents. And the Mets are still on the hook for Billy Wagner’s $10.5 million salary in 2009. It’s not my money that they’re spending but I’d rather see the resources applied across the multiple potential openings in the bullpen, left field, and rotation than to one “great” closer.

Image via Wikimedia

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Mets Tatis Comeback Player Of The Year

Mets outfielder Fernando Tatis received a well-deserved award this week from the Major League Baseball Players Association, the Comeback Player of the Year Award. His work in the outfield was a little shaky at times, but you can’t deny that his offense was fantastic. Tatis had more clutch hits this season than any player, including the guys that were out there every day.

Tatis’ line was awesome: 92 G| 273 AB| .297| .369| .484| 11 HR| 47 RBI| 123 OPS+. Compare that to Carlos Delgado’s OPS+ of 127.

Tatis was even more valuable to the Mets than expected with Moises Alou going down for the season again in May. There’s no way that Omar Minaya expected to get 273 AB’s out of Tatis when they brought him up to the majors. Hopefully, the free agent will sign a new deal with the Mets. If they signed Marlon Anderson last off-season to a two-year deal, they should certainly offer two years to Tatis.

Check out this Q&A that David Brown from Yahoo Sports did with Tatis.

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Mets 2008 Off-Season Needs: Starting Pitching

You probably thought my next off-season needs post would be the bullpen. Yes, that post is coming soon. It’s almost too much to think about though. So for now, let’s talk about the starting pitching situation.

Returning starters Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and John Maine will be in the rotation. Santana is a shut-down ace and really requires no further discussion. He’ll be starting on opening day in Cincinnati, period. Pelfrey had a break out season in 2008 and should be the #2 behind Santana. He seemed to run out of gas a bit in September but really found himself in May.

John Maine is coming off shoulder surgery to address a bone spur. He’s cleared to start throwing again in December and should be fine for spring training. I really thought he was going to have a break out season after being nearly unhittable in spring training. But the injuries really damaged his season.

Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez will both be free agents after the World Series ends. I don’t expect to see Pedro back again. And Ollie will probably get a better offer than he’s worth from someone other than the Mets. If Omar Minaya can make a decent deal with Ollie and Scott Boras (doubtful) in the neighborhood of 3-years/$27 million, he should take it. But I think some team out there will go to four or five years for Ollie because he’s only going to be 27 years old during the 2009 season.

That leaves two openings to be filled in the rotation. Expect Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell to get a shot to compete for one of those spots in spring training. One of those two promising minor leaguers should get a chance to occupy the #5 spot in the rotation.

The Mets will probably look to fill a #4 spot from free agency and take a chance on a “project” starter as insurance in case Niese and Parnell aren’t ready for the majors yet. You can see the complete list of starters that will be free agents next month at MLB Trade Rumors. Beyond CC Sabathia (17-10 2.70) and Ben Sheets (13-9 3.09), the list isn’t really that impressive. Don’t expect the Mets to splurge on another ace like those two. They got Johan Santana last off-season. So I don’t see the Mets making another huge financial commitment to a starter.

A.J. Burnett (18-10 4.07) will probably opt out of his Blue Jays contract. But he’ll be looking for a long-term deal and I don’t expect the Mets to get into a 4+ year deal with any pitchers at this point.

There are several guys that could fit nicely into the middle of the rotation like Derek Lowe (14-11 3.24). Despite the rumors that he doesn’t want to be on the east coast again, he’ll go where the money is. He’ll be 36 years old next season but he could certainly fill the spot in the middle of the rotation. Jon Garland (14-8 4.90) and Ryan Dempster (17-6 4.51) are certainly worth talking to about a three year contract as well.

The “project” pitcher that the Mets pick up on a one-year deal could be anyone from Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Carl Pavano, Matt Clement, or Sidney Ponson. The tricky part will be finding a pitcher that will agree to a minor league contract so the Mets can give Parnell and Niese a legitimate shot at the fifth spot in the rotation. Colon and Clement seem the most likely candidates to agree to start the season in the minors.

Even with Pedro and Ollie probably leaving there are plenty of free agent options available this off-season. I certainly wouldn’t like to see the Mets get into a contract longer than three years for a middle of the rotation starter. That should be the key criteria, even if the contract has to get into the $33 million plus range. Gil Meche and Ted Lilly both got five year deals, so that throws off the market. But the Mets really need to keep their contracts to as short a term as possible.

Add a comment below with your thoughts.

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