Baseball Bloggers Alliance Day 2010

I don’t want to harp on this but a quick mention that I’m a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. Although this may not be significant for most of you, there are some tangible benefits from joining a group of like-minded individuals. You’re probably already aware of that concept because you’re reading this blog. We’re all Mets fans. That allows us to virtually “gather” here and on other sites to hang our heads at the state of this franchise.

The alliance has exposed me to some incredible work that writers are doing on the Mets and other teams. There is a lot of talent out there and some opinions and research that you would never find in the mainstream media. I’ve participated in podcasts and worked with Joe Torre Safe at Home Foundation and Pitch In For Baseball to discuss our members supporting their events.  It’s been a great experience in my first season of participation and I’m looking forward to a future of growth and exposure to new opportunities with the group.

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Mets 2010 Scorecard – Part 1 Offense

Businessman covered in sticky notes while pointing his finger to his head

http://view.picapp.com//JavaScripts/OTIjs.jsIn the world of corporate finance there are some important tools that are used to run a business. Stockholders might expect the CEO of the company to know every detail about every job in the company, but the board members know better. They expect the CEO, CFO, COO and others to look at specific numbers and trends to identify problems and or opportunities. Hence, the tool known as the Scorecard.

This is a tool that many people have seen or have some experience with. In baseball a Scorecard keeps track of balls, strikes, outs, hits, etc. In business the Scorecard often tracks productivity, labor costs, expenses, and benchmark data. It is a one page summary of the important numbers and trends the team/company should be tracking.

So in using my background in finance and business I have designed a Scorecard for the New York Mets. In this we will track weekly, monthly and yearly statistics. I will identify certain baseball stats that the General Manager should be tracking as well as some financial stats that the President and CEO should be tracking.

As an introduction I will slowly build the Scorecard with you over the next few weeks/months. I want to be able to explain the need for each of the items we will be evaluating as well as the context we will be placing them. I will be evaluating the Mets versus the top five teams in the National League in each of the respective categories. I choose this metric because the goal for the Mets is to first make the playoffs, then progress to the World Series. After looking at a few different ways of evaluating the team, I settled on the top five teams in the NL. Success in those categories will most likely breed success in the standings and hopefully the progression into the playoffs. Continue reading “Mets 2010 Scorecard – Part 1 Offense”

Mets Sign Paulino, Carrasco

June 06 2010: Marlins' catcher Ronny Paulino (29) strikes out at bat during MLB action between the New York Mets and the Florida Marlins at Citi Field in Flushing, New York. The Mets beat the Marlins 7-6.

http://view.picapp.com//JavaScripts/OTIjs.jsThe Mets signed two free agents to big league deals today at the winter meetings. No, it isn’t Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. It’s Ronny Paulino and D.J. Carrasco. A backup catcher and a middle reliever aren’t much to get excited about. But for the Mets, it’s about all we’re going to get.

Ronny Paulino should split time with Josh Thole behind the plate. But I would guess that it won’t be a straight platoon situation. I think Thole should get about 70% of the playing time with Paulino playing occasionally against lefties. Paulino is going to be here on a 1-year/$1.3 million contract and still has a few games on a steroid suspension from last year to serve out. He’s not bad offensively so he won’t be an automatic out coming off the bench.

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB
2005 24 PIT NL 2 5 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .500 .600 .500 1.100 195 2
2006 25 PIT NL 129 481 442 37 137 19 0 6 55 0 0 34 79 .310 .360 .394 .754 96 174
2007 26 PIT NL 133 494 457 56 120 25 0 11 55 2 2 33 79 .263 .314 .389 .703 83 178
2008 27 PIT NL 40 130 118 8 25 5 0 2 18 0 0 11 24 .212 .277 .305 .582 56 36
2009 28 FLA NL 80 266 239 24 65 10 1 8 27 1 0 25 48 .272 .340 .423 .762 99 101
2010 29 FLA NL 91 344 316 31 82 18 0 4 37 1 0 25 51 .259 .311 .354 .665 76 112
6 Seasons 475 1720 1576 157 431 77 1 31 192 4 2 129 281 .273 .328 .383 .711 86 603
162 Game Avg. 162 587 537 54 147 26 0 11 65 1 1 44 96 .273 .328 .383 .711 86 206
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 12/7/2010.
D.J. Carrasco is working on a 2-year/$2.5 million contract. He’ll be 34 years old in April and is a middle inning replacement for some lost arms in the bullpen this season. He generally keeps the walks to a minimum and consistently has a WHIP in the 1.3-1.4 range.
Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP
2003 26 KCR AL 6 5 .545 4.82 50 2 21 0 0 2 80.1 82 44 43 8 40 4 57 7 0 6 355 102 1.519
2004 27 KCR AL 2 2 .500 4.84 30 0 11 0 0 0 35.1 41 22 19 5 15 3 22 3 0 2 163 100 1.585
2005 28 KCR AL 6 8 .429 4.79 21 20 0 1 0 0 114.2 129 67 61 11 51 2 49 6 3 7 511 92 1.570
2008 31 CHW AL 1 0 1.000 3.96 31 0 6 0 0 0 38.2 30 17 17 2 14 1 30 5 0 0 158 117 1.138
2009 32 CHW AL 5 1 .833 3.76 49 1 11 0 0 0 93.1 103 42 39 5 29 4 62 2 0 3 405 125 1.414
2010 33 TOT NL 3 2 .600 3.68 63 0 8 0 0 0 78.1 68 39 32 5 34 3 65 5 0 6 330 113 1.302
2010 33 PIT NL 2 2 .500 3.88 45 0 6 0 0 0 55.2 50 24 24 4 22 1 45 4 0 4 232 105 1.293
2010 33 ARI NL 1 0 1.000 3.18 18 0 2 0 0 0 22.2 18 15 8 1 12 2 20 1 0 2 98 135 1.324
6 Seasons 23 18 .561 4.31 244 23 57 1 0 2 440.2 453 231 211 36 183 17 285 28 3 24 1922 106 1.443
162 Game Avg. 6 5 .561 4.31 62 6 15 0 0 1 112 115 59 54 9 47 4 73 7 1 6 489 106 1.443
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 12/7/2010.
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Mets Won’t Be Active At Winter Meetings

NEW YORK - OCTOBER 29: Sandy Alderson answers...
Image by Getty Images via @daylife

This week Sandy Alderson has been trying to get the fans excited about the prospects of activity at the MLB Winter Meetings this week. I don’t know about you but it’s not working on me. I know the reality of the Mets situation. They have $5 million or less to spend on free agents within the 2011 budget. That’s not good enough to bring back Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, or any other player remotely as skilled as they are.

Frankly, I would more excited if the Mets were able to dump Luis Castillo or Oliver Perez on another team. That’s the best possible scenario. And that’s a pretty sad state of the team.

Alderson was talking pretty tough to reporters this week when he said:

“I can guarantee you, we’ll come back with some good players,” Alderson said. “I can’t guarantee how high-profile they will be. Or how many. If nothing else, we’ll pick in the Rule 5 draft, just to say we brought a player back.”

We’re smart enough to understand the reality though. Alderson is trying to find a low-budget starting pitcher like Chris Young or Jeff Francis. They’re guys coming off injuries or severely under-performing seasons looking for a short-term deal until they can get back to a more “normal” performance level.

The Mets are also looking to add some bullpen help with the recent losses of Raul Valdes, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, and Hisanori Takahashi. Middle relievers signing doesn’t generally get the fan base out in mass to buy tickets.

There is the outside chance that Jose Reyes could get traded. The one team that I think would be a good trading partner for Reyes is the Reds. I don’t think the Reds want to start 2011 with Paul Janish as their plan for the season at shortstop. They won the Central Division with 91 games and are bringing pretty much everyone of value back again except Orlando Cabrera. By the way, Brandon Phillips is making the exact same salary as Reyes in 2011, the last year of his contract with the Reds. Although the Reds do have a club option for 2012 at $12 million. Keep that in mind.

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Mets Non-Tender Maine, Green, Carter

NEW YORK - MAY 09: John Maine #33 of the New ...
Image by Getty Images via @daylife

The Mets finally cut John Maine loose. They did it a year too late but as long as they got it done, that’s what counts. It’s been a downhill slide for Maine since his breakout 2007 season with 15 wins. Injuries and difficulty coping with them took its toll on Maine leading to him coming off surgery (again) but this time without a contract. I’m sure some team will offer him a minor league deal to see if he can recover but I doubt that it will be the Mets.

Here are Maine’s career stats through 2010:

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA+ WHIP
2004 23 BAL AL 0 1 .000 9.82 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.2 7 4 4 1 3 1 19 51 2.727
2005 24 BAL AL 2 3 .400 6.30 10 8 1 0 0 0 40.0 39 30 28 8 24 24 184 69 1.575
2006 25 NYM NL 6 5 .545 3.60 16 15 1 1 1 0 90.0 69 40 36 15 33 71 365 122 1.133
2007 26 NYM NL 15 10 .600 3.91 32 32 0 1 1 0 191.0 168 90 83 23 75 180 810 110 1.272
2008 27 NYM NL 10 8 .556 4.18 25 25 0 0 0 0 140.0 122 70 65 16 67 122 608 101 1.350
2009 28 NYM NL 7 6 .538 4.43 15 15 0 0 0 0 81.1 67 42 40 8 38 55 349 92 1.291
2010 29 NYM NL 1 3 .250 6.13 9 9 0 0 0 0 39.2 47 29 27 8 25 39 190 64 1.815
7 Seasons 41 36 .532 4.35 108 105 2 2 2 0 585.2 519 305 283 79 265 492 2525 98 1.339
162 Game Avg. 13 11 .532 4.35 34 34 1 1 1 0 187 166 97 90 25 85 157 806 98 1.339
NYM (5 yrs) 39 32 .549 4.17 97 96 1 2 2 0 542.0 473 271 251 70 238 467 2322 102 1.312
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/3/2010.

The Mets also chose to non-tender Sean Green and Chris Carter. Green only made it into 11 games last year after having cracked ribs. He claimed the injury was because the Mets were trying to convert him to a submarine style from his usual sidearm delivery. Who knows if that’s really the case? But it just didn’t make sense to bring him back. Relievers are so up and down from year to year.

Carter was such a likable player in 2010 for the Mets. He’s the kind of guy that everyone roots for, including me. He was the super Joe McEwing of 2010. It’s too bad he didn’t have the talent to stick on the roster. Carter was an absolute butcher in the field. I could see him getting a shot with an American League team as a designated hitter. I hope it works out for him. I’d be thrilled to see him back in the big leagues and playing successfully at some point.

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Mets 2011 Hot Stove – Trade Bait

New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes (L) and center fielder Angel Pagan celebrate their 4-0 win over the New York Yankees in their MLB inter-league baseball game at Yankee Stadium in New York, June 18, 2010. REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT BASEBALL IMAGES OF THE DAY)

http://view.picapp.com//JavaScripts/OTIjs.jsThe Mets are strapped with a high payroll and a lot of baggage. Sandy Alderson feels the proper course is to wait out certain expiring contracts. Therefore, the Mets will look to get creative this hot stove. This will require signing some lower priced free agents to be brought in to compete to win jobs. It will take low risk-high reward players possibly coming off down or injured seasons. It may take a trade or two to import some exciting new talent and shake things up. Here is what you can expect to hear from analysts during the upcoming hot stove.

Possible Trade Bait:

Jose Reyes SS

Profile

The catalyst for almost half a decade has been a popular topic of trade conversation. Reyes is coming off a few injury plagued down seasons, and could become a free agent after the 2011 season. It will take a boatload for a team to convince Sandy to deal the explosive shortstop. Shortstops who hit and field as well as Jose make him a commodity. When he is healthy he can spark an offense and infuriate pitchers. Continue reading “Mets 2011 Hot Stove – Trade Bait”

Mets Report Mailbag: Nelfi Zapata

Appalachian League
Image via Wikipedia

Here’s a Thanksgiving mailbag for you… Reader Danny Donovan wrote: What are your thoughts of prospect Nelfi Zapata?

To answer this question I decided that I haven’t kept up with the Appalachian League enough to answer this question thoughtfully. So I went to Nick Migliore from the Get It Right baseball blog. Nick is a faithful follower of Mets prospects and a tremendous writer. Here are Nick’s thoughts on Nelfi Zapata:

Nelfi Zapata is a catcher in the Mets’ system that was drafted in the 19th round of the 2009 June draft. As an 18-year old in the Gulf Coast League, Zapata had a decent debut, hitting an overall line of .261/.341/.370 with 1 homerun in 135 plate appearances. This year however, Zapata hit a less-than-stellar .247/.327/.312 with 2 homeruns in 208 plate appearances as a 19 year old in the hitter-friendly Appalachian League. While the numbers this past season weren’t very good, the plate discipline numbers were a definite positive sign. Zapata walked 8.1% of the time in the GCL in 2009 and he was able to maintain a similar walk rate (8.2%) in the Appy League this season. More encouragingly, he slashed his strikeout rate from 21.8% in 2009 to 14.6% in 2010. While Zapata is still very raw, its good to know that catchers who are willing to take walks and put the ball in play at a decent rate will have a spot on a big league roster, so hes on the right track.

One area of improvement, however, should be the power. It seems as if Zapata focused more on putting the ball in play and making contact in 2010, which reflected in his lowered strikeout rate (as noted above), but it also lowered his power numbers, going from a .109 ISO* in 2009 to .065 ISO in 2010. With that said, Zapata has been lauded for his power potential, which makes one believe that he can up those power numbers the more he develops as a hitter. Another area of improvement will have to be his defense; Zapata’s caught stealing% was strong in 2009 (45%) but dropped to a rather poor 21% in 2010. He also has major issues with passed balls – 12 in 2009, 16 in 2010. However, its important to reiterate that hes raw, and these are simply areas for development, not negative things that will stick with him his entire career. If Zapata taps into his power potential and cleans up his defense, hes undoubtedly going to shoot up the Mets’ prospect list. But for now, hes just another raw guy to keep an eye on and let develop.

*For those curious: ISO stands for “isolated power”, which is a good measure of a player’s power output instead of just looking at somewhat-deceiving stats such as homeruns or slugging percentage. The formula is SLG% minus AVG.

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